It’s New Year’s Eve and I’m snowbound in Santa Fe near the Ortiz mountains where over 28” of the white fluffy stuff has fallen in 48 hours. Yes, Denver has all the attention but New Mexico is least able to cope – four snow ploughs in Santa Fe for a city of 675,00. Yet another sign that Mother Nature is intent on reminding us who’s boss. Very fortunately for us, the pantry and cellar are well stocked and nature’s display of power has not yet impaired our enjoyment of this peaceful season between Christmas and new years.
So this as good a place as any to reflect on whether 2007 will be the year in which major changes in direction and focus will occur or whether we as a species continue to rush like lemmings towards our own particular cliff.
For the first time in human history, both the weapons of mass destruction as well as tools of mass construction are equally available to individuals like you and me. As highlighted by my dear friend and business partner, Leon Benjamin in the UK, “business as usual” in 2007 is simply not an option – if it ever was. In his Dec 02 blogpost, Leon quotes: Sir Crispin Tickell, director of the Policy Foresight Programme, James Martin Institute at Oxford University and Chancellor of the University of Kent at Canterbury, England when speaking to the American Association for the Advancement of Science earlier in 2006.
Earth's most pressing problems are of our own making. Population increase, degradation of land and resources and the destruction of biodiversity are transforming the Earth's environment in unsustainable ways, leading global researchers to conclude, "the business-as-usual way of dealing with the Earth's system is not an option. The idea may be hard to accept, but in its long history the Earth has not been in this situation before.
However, humans already know how to prevent and repair these environmental threats, "if we have the will to do it." He said that basic conservation, pollution reduction and social changes such as improving women's education would take care of most environmental worries without complicated technological fixes. (For the whole speech, see here).
Tickell is an authoritative commentator – a voice of warning sounded way ahead of his time. His 1977 book Climate Change and World Affairs was one of the first to bring the problem of human-induced climate change to wider public attention.
So if it’s not a question of capacity then it must be a question of whether we have the vision, the will, the courage and the determination to create our own future – a better, safer , more harmonious, less vulnerable future?
That question in turn begs another question - what conditions are most conducive to behavioral change in humans? This is key if we’re going to slow down let alone turn the collective human Titanic. And at first glance, the prospects are not encouraging. Alan Deutschman’s excellent post Change or Die starts with a salutary tale:
“What if a well-informed, trusted authority figure said you had to make difficult and enduring changes in the way you think or act? If you didn’t, your time would end soon – a lot sooner than it had to. Could you change when change really mattered. When it mattered most. Yes, you say? Try again. Yes? You are probably deluding yourself. You wouldn’t change. Don’t believe it? You want the odds? Here are the odds, the scientifically studied odds: nine to one. That’s nine to one against you. How do you like those odds?”
In the remainder of his excellent blog on this subject (shortly to be available and expanded in a new book of the same title); Deutschman cites evidence for human resistance and reluctance to behavioral change. For example, he draws heavily on evidence from the medical profession that suggests that 80% of our escalating health care budget is consumed by just five behavioral issues people are reluctant or unable to change: too much smoking, drinking, eating, and stress combined with too little exercise.
Based on Deutschman’s ideas and those of others like Kotter, I think would-be change agents have to create at least six conditions if they want to succeed:
- Create a sense of urgency
- Encourage and enable people to both see and feel a better yet often different future.
- Focus on positive imagery.
- Provide pointers to practical and incremental action steps - things that peeople can do - to bring about the desired result.
- Deliver positive feedback
- Provide sustained support through the period of transition.
Catch the next six blog posts when we’ll explore each of these more closely.
In the meantime, may all of you out there in the blogosphere and anyone reading this, enjoy all Health, Wealth and Happiness in 2007. Just don't assume that past experience will be of much use in this strange new future we face. Keep your wits about you!